Pirates blank Cubs, complete rare winning mark in June
Baseball Betting Lines
06/30/2009 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Freddy Sanchez doubled and knocked in two runs, and Ross Ohlendorf tossed seven shutout innings, as the Pittsburgh Pirates got by the Chicago Cubs, 3-0, in the second of a three-game set at PNC Park.
Brandon Moss finished 2-for-4 for Pittsburgh, which recovered from a 3-1 setback in the series opener on Monday. The Pirates have won five of seven overall.
Ohlendorf (7-6) was sensational, giving up only four hits and striking out a career-high eight batters without issuing a walk. Matt Capps picked up his 18th save of the season after pitching a hitless ninth inning.
Earlier on Tuesday, the Pirates traded outfielder Eric Hinske to the New York Yankees for minor league pitcher Casey Erickson and outfielder Eric Fryer. Pittsburgh then shipped outfielder Nyjer Morgan and left-handed pitcher Sean Burnett to Washington for outfielder Lastings Milledge and right-hander Joel Hanrahan. The club also recalled outfielder Garrett Jones from Triple-A Indianapolis.
The victory gave the Pirates a 14-13 mark for the month, their first winning record in June since going 15-12 in 1996.
Geovany Soto had a pair of hits for the Cubs, who have dropped three of four and seven of nine.
Ted Lilly (7-6) was the hard-luck loser after throwing seven innings. The veteran lefty allowed three runs -- two earned -- on eight hits, while striking out seven. He also walked a pair.
Sanchez led off the fourth inning with a single and Andy LaRoche served a base hit into left three batters later to put runners on first and second. Moss then struck out swinging, but a wild pitch allowed a hustling Sanchez to come into score after Lilly was unable to handle a toss from catcher Soto.
Sanchez's RBI single in the fifth brought in Jack Wilson, who reached on a bunt single and took second on a sacrifice bunt by Ohlendorf to give the Pirates a 2-0 lead.
Pittsburgh tacked on another run in the seventh when pinch-hitter Steve Pearce doubled down the left-field line and crossed the plate on Sanchez's two-bagger to center.
John Grabow pitched out of a Cubs' eighth inning threat, retiring Derrek Lee on a ground ball after Chicago put runners on second and third. Capps came on for the ninth and issued a two-out walk to Soto, but got Mike Fontenot to fly out to left to end the game.
Game Notes
Cubs reliever Jeff Samardzija was recalled from Triple-A Iowa earlier on Tuesday and pitched a scoreless eighth inning...Chicago finished 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position and stranded seven, while the Pirates went 2-for-9 with RISP and left seven...Despite the loss, the Cubs have won 20 of the last 26 meetings.
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames' gamble paid dividends on Tuesday, as the club signed defenseman Jay Bouwmeester to a multi-year contract just hours prior to the start of the NHL free agency period. Over the wee
<< Boozer, Okur to remain with Jazz
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Forward Carlos Boozer and center Mehmet
Okur both announced they will remain with the Utah Jazz for the 2009-10
campaign.
Boozer announced he will exercise his player option and remain with the
<< Suns exercise option on Amundson
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Suns exercised the second-year team
option on the contract of forward Louis Amundson.
Signed by the Suns last August, Amundson saw action in a career-high 76 games
last season and averaged 4.2 poin
<< Utah C Okur to return next season
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Utah Jazz center Mehmet Okur decided
to exercise his player option in his contract and return to the team next
season, the club announced on Tuesday.
Okur, who came to Utah as a free agent i
<< Montana State gives basketball coaches three-year extensions
Bozeman, MT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Montana State University has agreed to
three-year contract extensions with head women's basketball coach Tricia
Binford and head men's coach Brad Huse.
Each coach was set to enter the 2009-10
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Haren threw seven innings of one-run ball and added a double and solo home run at the plate to help snap the Diamondbacks' five-game losing streak with a 6-2 decision over the Reds. Haren (7-
Braves edge Phils in 10 innings at Turner Field >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gregor Blanco scored the winning run in the
10th inning as part of a three-hit night, and Martin Prado drove him in as
part of a four-RBI evening, as Atlanta used the big bats from two unlikely
sources
Big Unit defeats Carpenter, Giants top Cards >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edgar Renteria went 3-for-4 with two RBI and
Randy Johnson won the battle of former Cy Young Award winners, as the Giants
pulled out a 6-3 victory over Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals in the second
test of
Santana can't stop Mets' woes in loss to Brewers >>
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets threw the baseball all
around the diamond during Milwaukee's four-run fourth frame, and the Brewers
beat Johan Santana in a 6-3 victory at Miller Park.
Ryan Braun was right in the m
White Sox wash away Lee, Tribe in rain-shortened tilt >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gordon Beckham went 3-for-4 with a solo
homer, two runs batted in, and two runs scored as the Chicago White Sox
pounded the Cleveland Indians, 11-4, in a rain-shortened game called in the
top of
Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.