Bolstered Padres to begin home set with Marlins
Baseball Betting Lines
07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A walk-off victory and the acquisition of a six-time All- Star made Thursday one exciting day for the San Diego Padres.
San Diego will hope Friday is just as good, as it is expected to have infielder Miguel Tejada available for tonight's opener of a three-game series against the Florida Marlins, a club that has lost five straight to the Padres.
Owners of a 3 1/2-game lead for first place in the National League West, San Diego began its Thursday by getting Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for cash considerations and minor league right-hander Wynn Pelzer. A former American League MVP, the 36-year-old is hitting .269 with seven homers and 39 RBI in 97 games this year and is expected to play both third base and shortstop for his new club.
"Hopefully, [Tejada] can come over here to this situation and contribute somewhere in our lineup," said Padres manager Bud Black.
It is unknown if Tejada will be in the starting lineup tonight.
The good feelings of the bold move made by the Padres front office did not disappear at game time. Looking to claim victory over the Dodgers in the rubber match of a three-game series, Oscar Salazar scored Scott Hairston with a pinch-hit single up the middle with one out to give San Diego a 3-2 victory and series win over Los Angeles.
Chase Headley and Yorvit Torrealba both knocked in a run for the Padres, who have won five of their last six games.
Wade LeBlanc will try to extend the momentum tonight after snapping his personal four-decision losing streak with a victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Padres left-hander gave up three runs on eight hits over six innings, improving to 5-8 with a 3.35 earned run average on the season.
LeBlanc, 25, has made one career start versus the Marlins prior, earning a no- decision on Aug. 29 after yielding four runs in six innings of work.
He won't have to face Jorge Cantu after the Marlins dealt their third baseman to the Texas Rangers for a pair of pitching prospects. Cantu was hitting .262 on the season with 10 homers and 54 RBI.
He went 2-for-4 and twice in Thursday's 5-0 victory over the San Francisco Giants, then was traded following the contest.
Anibal Sanchez was spectacular versus San Francisco, notching his second career shutout, a one-hitter that also featured a walk and eight strikeouts. Sanchez, who engineered a no-hitter back in 2006, gave up a single in the fifth inning on the way to earning his eighth victory of the season.
"Everything was working for [Sanchez]," said Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez. "He had command of all his pitches, so we knew something good was going to happen today."
Mike Stanton and Ronny Paulino knocked in two runs apiece for the Marlins, who split this four-game series at AT&T Park and have won 11 of their last 17 games overall to get back to .500 at 51-51.
Florida's Chris Volstad will be seeking his first victory since June 13 tonight, having gone 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA in five starts since. The 23-year-old made his first start on Sunday since July 6 after a brief demotion to Triple-A and earned a no-decision versus the Braves, getting charged with three runs on five hits and three walks over six innings of work.
Volstad is 4-8 with a 4.76 ERA on the season and 1-2 with a 6.14 ERA in three career meetings with the Padres. The right-hander lost to them on June 25, allowing three runs on seven hits over six innings while striking out six in the 3-0 setback.
San Diego's five-game win streak over the Marlins includes a three-game sweep in Florida from June 25-27. The Fish did win all three meetings in San Diego a season ago.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
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